Flattening Coronavirus (Convid-19) Curve

The coronavirus has officially been declared a “pandemic” by the World Health Organization (WHO). What that means is that it is spreading widely in the world, and countries should increase their efforts to address the situation.

Outbreak, epidemic, or pandemic: what is the difference?

When talking about a disease, these terms can be confusing.

• An “outbreak” is an increase in the number of people who have a certain disease in a community, or geographic area. For instance, seasonal flu each year.
• An “epidemic” is when that outbreak spreads rapidly to others.
• A “pandemic” is when the infectious agent has spread globally. It often occurs with a new strain of a virus, like this novel coronavirus.

When will the coronavirus outbreak end?

The current outbreak of coronavirus will end with a vaccine or something known as "herd immunity." Herd immunity, or community immunity, is when a high percentage of the community becomes immune to the disease, either through vaccination or prior illness. At that point, it is less likely to spread from person to person.

What should you do about coronavirus?

• Wash your hands often or use hand sanitizer.
• Avoid crowds.
• Avoid hugging or shaking hands when greeting others.
• Don’t touch any high touch surfaces such as doorknobs, bathroom faucet handles, etc.
• Frequently clean high touch surfaces in your home.
• Get enough sleep and have a healthy diet.
• Follow healthcare facility visitor guidelines and restrictions.
• If you are visiting the hospital campus for appointments or testing, please read these recommendations.

What does it mean to “flatten the curve”?

The ideal goal in fighting an epidemic or pandemic is to completely halt the spread. But  mitigation. This reduces the number of cases that are active at any given time, which in turn gives doctors, hospitals, police, schools and vaccine-manufacturers time to prepare and respond, without becoming overwhelmed.

Think of the health care system capacity as a subway car that can only hold so many people at once. During rush hour, that capacity is not enough to handle the demand, so people must wait on the platform for their turn to ride. Staggering work hours diminishes the rush hour and increases the likelihood that you will get on the train and maybe even get a seat. Avoiding a surge of coronavirus cases can ensure that anyone who needs care will find it at the hospital.

What sorts of mitigation measures help transform the red curve into the blue curve?

Diseases spread when one person gives it to one or more others, who go on to give it to more people, and so on. How fast this occurs depends on many factors, including how contagious the disease is, how many people are vulnerable and how quickly they get sick.

The difference between seasonal flu and coronavirus is that many people have full or partial immunity to the flu virus because they have had it before or were vaccinated against it. Far more people are vulnerable to coronavirus, so it has many more targets of opportunity to spread. Keeping people apart in time and space with social distancing measures, self-isolation and actual quarantine decreases opportunities for transmission.

Mitigation efforts keep people farther apart, making every transmission opportunity marginally less likely. This slows the spread. We should, and will, take the most vulnerable people out of the population altogether by keeping them totally separate. This is what Washington State is trying to do by limiting visitors to nursing homes. Think of this as a reverse quarantine.